We Need More Growth - NOT

I have often challenged the budding young geniuses that I know with the following problem: We have been doubling the human population on Earth every 35 to 50 years for several centuries. If we had maintained that rate from the beginning, when would Adam and Eve have lived?

The current population is approaching 8 billion people, or in scientific notation, about 8x10^9. For those that have a background in digital computers, a convenient approximation is that 2^10 is just a hair more than 10^3 (2 to the 10th power is 1024, which is 2.4% more than 1000). Thus a billion (10^9 or 1,000,000,000) is 1000x1000x1000, or approximately 1024x1024x1024, which is 2^30. 8 is 2^3, so 8 billion is about 2^33. Thus the population has doubled 33 times since Adam, or 32 times since Adam and Eve.

For a doubling rate of 35 years, 32 times 35 years is 1120 years, so Adam and Eve would have started just about 900 AD. Even at a slower rate of doubling every 50 years, 32 times 50 is 1600 years, so we still could have made it to the present starting at 400 AD.

Obviously the human population growth rate has been much less over most of our history. The problem has been the growth possible in recent history due to the industrial, technological and medical advances.

Now maybe making it from 2 people to 8 billion people in 1100 or 1600 years doesn't scare everybody. But consider this: in another 1100 to 1600 years at this rate, there will be 4 billion people for EVERY ONE of us here today. It is blatantly obvious that this is not going to happen - people would be a couple miles deep over the entire planet. Even at the slower rate of doubling every 50 years, by the end of this millennium there would be a million times as many people with only 5 square feet of land or water to stand on.

Currently the human density on usable land is about 250 per sq. mile, or about 2.5 acres for each person. At current rates we would expect the population to at least quadruple over the next century, which would leave less than an acre per person. By the end of another century we're down to less than a quarter acre, and by 2300 we're down to an area of a small apartment. Remember, if you want roads, farms, malls, etc., then you have to give up part of your apartment for that.

It is the opinion of the author that we are already over a sustainable population for the planet. But even if that is not so, in very few years it will certainly be true. If we do not learn to live with stability, not growth, catastrophe is inevitable.

(c) copyright Marcus Everett, Wallback WV 25285